Developing ‘anti-fragile’ strategies in a world that has become unpredictable

What does it mean to run a business today? Is it a job of precision or one of constant risk-taking? In a world where one crisis follows another and the unexpected becomes a daily occurrence, the role of the leader is being redefined.

It was around this question, both concrete and dizzying, that the conference ‘Leadership in the storm: developing anti-fragile strategies in a world that has become unpredictable’ was held at the One to One Retail E-Commerce event. Violette Bouveret, founder of Mecylium, which specialises in decision-making in crisis situations, and Romain Roy, founder of Greenweez, discussed an issue that has become vital for businesses: how not just to resist uncertainty, but to take advantage of it?

When chaos is no longer the exception

Today's business leaders are not just going through crises: they are navigating in what might be called a state of permacrisis. Unfair competition, the risk of cyber attacks, regulatory shocks, geopolitical and technological changes... Commerce, and e-commerce in particular, is now facing a multi-crisis environment.

The crises that preoccupy Romain Roy are the ecological emergency, unfair international competition and pressure on purchasing power. ‘The world has become rougher and faster’, he sums up with disarming frankness. And in this context, you need much more than a five-year business plan to stay the course.

Antifragility: a business philosophy, not a buzzword

For Violette Bouveret, this unstable world is a call not for resilience - the ability to withstand shocks - but for becoming anti-fragile, i.e. taking advantage of shocks. What is anti-fragility, a concept popularised by the essayist Nassim Nicholas Taleb?

Violette Bouveret defines it simply:

"Fragility is Thomas Cook. The shock of Covid wipes him out. Resilience is the big French banks facing up to the fintechs. They are losing business, but their financial strength is enabling them to withstand the shock. Antifragility is our bodies becoming more resistant every time we do sport. In e-commerce, it's Shein that takes advantage of the volatility of customer expectations by developing predictive models and matching production capacity".

At Greenweez, this idea has not remained theoretical, as the company has decided to reinvent its model to become a company with a mission. It was embodied in a far-reaching approach: reformulating the company's mission by involving all its employees. ‘Better consumption to make the world a better place’ has become more than a slogan: it has become a shared reference point.

Structuring agility: taking inspiration from the military to strengthen the collective

Chaos calls for agility, but agility needs a framework. Romain Roy says he has drawn inspiration from the military world to structure the work of his teams. Mission briefs, back-briefs, rehearsals, debriefs... These rituals help everyone to understand their role and to act lucidly in the face of uncertainty. ‘What makes an organisation more agile in the face of the unexpected is the clarity of the mission and the ability of each member to situate themselves within it’, he explains. Violette Bouveret reminded us of the importance of subsidiarity, of taking decisions as close as possible to the action, as a lever to reduce fragility.

It is not an imposed rigidity, but a shared framework that gives autonomy without creating vagueness. It is also what makes it possible to take local initiatives - essential in turbulent times.

Decide without certainty, but with conviction

The heart of leadership in times of storm is the decision. Not the choice - which implies a known set of options - but the decision, that act of commitment without all the guarantees.

‘Deciding means moving forward with courage in the face of uncertainty,’ insists Violette Bouveret. And that means accepting that reference points change, that plans have to be adjusted, that we'll never have all the data in hand.

According to the two speakers, it is in this ability to commit despite ambiguity that the real difference lies between traditional leadership... and antifragile leadership.

Cultivate the ecosystem: open up the circle, even to competitors

Another often underestimated lever is the ecosystem. In a complex world, no one can succeed alone. At Greenweez, this conviction goes so far as to include competitors on the mission committee.

A surprising choice? Perhaps. But it reflects an open strategy: seeking mutual enrichment rather than withdrawal. And it's also a way of breaking down silos, nurturing debate, and bringing out solutions that would never have been envisaged otherwise.

"What kills an organisation is not disagreement. It's soft consensus or silence", says Violette Bouveret.

What happens next?

In a world that has become unpredictable, the ability to reconfigure is more important than foresight.

Resistance is no longer enough. What counts now is the ability to structure ourselves to bounce back, to make decisions without having all the answers, to draw on collective intelligence, and to anchor ourselves in a raison d'être that is strong enough to keep us on course in the fog.

Because in the end, the challenge is not to avoid the storm - but to learn to sail with it. And, why not, turn it into an engine for lasting transformation.

Listen to the recording